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WSN 7 / COL 8
WSNWashington Nationals45%
COLColorado Rockies55%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterCarson PalmquistConfirmed
Model pickCOL moneyline55%Model 20260720_auto
COLHome starterMichael LorenzenConfirmed
WSN45%ML -115
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
COL55%ML -104

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.1 pts

Model picks COL at home in Coors (PF 1.47) despite WSN's massive offense gap (6.7 vs 3.7 RPG, .820 vs .531 OPS). Both pitchers are struggling (Lorenzen 6.22 ERA, Mikolas 5.53 ERA) in an extreme park. Market correctly favors WSN -110. Total 13.0 looks low given park and pitcher quality; lean over.

offense defense mismatchextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total13.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Carson PalmquistWSN starter / away
Projected K3.0Actual 2 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.580%over
O 2.558%under
O 3.536%under
O 4.519%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Michael LorenzenCOL starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +110 betonlineag / U -120 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%over
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-115 / -104WSN / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context13.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total