sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

CIN 9 / COL 6
CINCincinnati Reds55%
COLColorado Rockies45%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CINAway starterHunter GreeneConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline55%Model 20260713_auto
COLHome starterRyan FeltnerConfirmed
CIN55%ML -167
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
COL45%ML +140

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.1 pts

Model total of 9.27 is 1.73 runs below market 11.0 at Coors (PF 1.47). Extreme park argues over but Greene's 16.55 K/9 in small 10.3 IP sample and Feltner's 4.55 ERA over 63.3 IP suggest model may be right that market overprices Coors effect here. CIN slight comparison on moneyline; model and market align around 55-58% away.

total far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.3
Market total11.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Hunter GreeneCIN starter / away
Projected K6.0Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -133 betonlineag / U +121 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.570%over
O 5.554%over
O 6.539%over
O 7.526%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Ryan FeltnerCOL starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +123 betrivers / U -143 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.565%under
O 4.546%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-167 / +140CIN / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total