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SFG 6 / COL 7
SFGSan Francisco Giants47%
COLColorado Rockies53%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SFGAway starterTyler MahleConfirmed
Model pickCOL moneyline53%Model 20260629_auto
COLHome starterTanner GordonConfirmed
SFG47%ML -120
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
COL53%ML +102

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap5.6 pts

Market and model converge on SFG slight favorite. Model predicts 11.48 runs vs market 13.0 — a 1.5-run gap at Coors (PF 1.47) suggests model is underweighting park. However, both SPs have ERAs above 5.6; SFG's 3.5 RPG offense is historically weak. Lean SFG on road form, lean under market total given offensive profiles.

total far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.3
Market total13.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Tyler MahleSFG starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -155 draftkings / U +142 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Tanner GordonCOL starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +116 draftkings / U -125 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.520%over
O 6.511%over
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-120 / +102SFG / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context13.0O -105 / U -114
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total