sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

SFG 6 / COL 4
SFGSan Francisco Giants47%
COLColorado Rockies53%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SFGAway starterRobbie RayConfirmed
Model pickCOL moneyline53%Model 20260629_auto
COLHome starterSean SullivanConfirmed
SFG47%ML -129
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
COL53%ML +110

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.5 pts

Model has SFG 55.7%, market implies 54.2% — tight convergence. Coors 1.47 park factor dominates SHAP but model total 9.78 vs market 11.5 is a 1.7-run gap favoring under. Ray's 3.39 ERA in 95.7 IP is legitimate; Sugano's 4.80 in limited sample less reliable. Model likely underweighting Coors inflation on total despite extreme park flag.

total far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.4
Market total12.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Robbie RaySFG starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -102 draftkings / U +105 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Sean SullivanCOL starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.1Actual 4 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.560%over
O 3.538%over
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-129 / +110SFG / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context12.5O -105 / U -114
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total