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MIA 10 / COL 7
MIAMiami Marlins56%
COLColorado Rockies44%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterSandy AlcantaraConfirmed
Model pickMIA moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
COLHome starterSean SullivanConfirmed
MIA56%ML -152
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
COL44%ML +128

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanOver
Model-market gap1.9 pts

MIA favored by both model (56%) and market (57%). COL pitcher is TBD/fallback with 6.83 ERA baseline. Coors 1.47 park factor screams runs but model total (10.35) sits 1.15 under market (11.5). Extreme park + pitcher uncertainty = lean over on total, lean MIA on side.

pitcher data fallbackextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin1.3
Projected total9.8
Market total11.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Sandy AlcantaraMIA starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -105 betonlineag / U -112 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%under
O 4.546%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Sean SullivanCOL starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.3Actual 5 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.563%over
O 3.541%over
O 4.524%over
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-152 / +128MIA / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-118)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.5O -118 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total