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BOS 5 / COL 2
BOSBoston Red Sox58%
COLColorado Rockies42%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterSonny GrayConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
COLHome starterSean SullivanConfirmed
BOS58%ML -163
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability59%Selected moneyline pick
COL42%ML +135

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanOver
Model-market gap1.0 pts

Home pitcher is fallback (Sullivan unresolved), away has Gray (3.12 ERA in 69 IP). Coors 1.47 park factor screams over; model 10.98 vs market 10.5 is tight. BOS offense showing .736 OPS but only 2.4 RPG suggests context issues. Market -161 implies 61.7%, model 58.3% — reasonable convergence given pitcher uncertainty.

pitcher data fallbackextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.0
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Sonny GrayBOS starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 11 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 betonlineag / U +122 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.525%over
O 6.514%over
O 7.57%over
O 8.53%over
O 9.51%over
O 10.51%over
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

Sean SullivanCOL starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.2Actual 3 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.562%over
O 3.540%under
O 4.523%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-163 / +135BOS / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total