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PIT 1 / COL 2
PITPittsburgh Pirates55%
COLColorado Rockies45%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterPaul SkenesProbable
Model pickPIT moneyline55%Model 20260616_auto
COLHome starterTomoyuki SuganoConfirmed
PIT55%ML -225
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability66%Selected moneyline pick
COL45%ML +184

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap11.8 pts

Model has PIT 54.5%, market implies 65.4% — significant gap favoring Pirates. Skenes (2.85 ERA, 10.87 K/9 in 82 IP) is elite; Sugano (4.54 ERA, 5.03 K/9) is vulnerable. Model's 12.58 total is 2+ runs over market's 10.5 at Coors. Coors inflates totals but Skenes dominance plus COL's .531 OPS argues for lower scoring than model expects.

Large model-market gaptotal far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total10.0
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Paul SkenesPIT starter / away
Projected K6.3Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -128 fanduel / U +117 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%over
O 5.559%over
O 6.544%over
O 7.530%over
O 8.520%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Tomoyuki SuganoCOL starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -123 betonlineag / U +115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 2.571%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.532%over
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-225 / +184PIT / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -117 / U -103
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total