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BOS 2 / COL 3
BOSBoston Red Sox58%
COLColorado Rockies42%

at Coors Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterJake BennettConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
COLHome starterRyan FeltnerConfirmed
BOS58%ML -140
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
COL42%ML +118

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap2.3 pts

Model has BOS 58.3% vs market 53.8% — modest comparison. Coors Field (PF 1.47) screams over, but both offenses are weak (COL .531 OPS, BOS 2.9 RPG). Model's 11.75 total vs market 11.5 is tight. Top SHAP features show away rolling stats dominating both margin and total predictions, which flags recency bias. Extreme park argues over but roster context argues under; lean BOS side, fade the total.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin1.4
Projected total9.2
Market total11.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jake BennettBOS starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 9 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +113 draftkings / U -123 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.519%over
O 6.510%over
O 7.55%over
O 8.52%over
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Ryan FeltnerCOL starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -106 betrivers / U -105 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%under
O 3.551%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-140 / +118BOS / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.5O -116 / U -106
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total