MLB / mlb / live
CHC 9 / COL 3CHCChicago Cubs55%
COLColorado Rockies45%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterEdward Cabrera
Model pickCHC moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
COLHome starterRyan Feltner
CHC55%ML -158
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability59%Selected moneyline pick
COL45%ML +132
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap3.5 pts
Market and model align on CHC (-142 vs 55% implied). Coors 1.47 PF drives model total to 9.4, but market sits at 11.0—a 1.6-run gap. Model may be underweighting Coors hitter effect or recent bullpen chaos. Feltner's 32 IP sample is thin; Cabrera's 4.99 ERA in pitcher park context argues caution. Lean CHC side, under the inflated market total.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.4
Market total11.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-158 / +132CHC / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total