MLB / mlb / live
CHC 2 / COL 3CHCChicago Cubs59%
COLColorado Rockies41%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterShota Imanaga
Model pickCHC moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
COLHome starterMichael Lorenzen
CHC59%ML -176
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
COL41%ML +145
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.8 pts
Model predicts 9.51 runs at Coors (PF 1.47), market sets 12.5. That 3-run gap is the park adjustment failing: model underweights extreme venue effects. Imanaga's 4.74 ERA and 1.08 WHIP vs Lorenzen's 8.01 ERA and 1.99 WHIP supports CHC side. Market implies 60.5% CHC, model has 58.6% — convergence validates the pick. Total should lean under market's inflated Coors number.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin1.7
Projected total9.5
Market total11.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-176 / +145CHC / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.5O -116 / U -105
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total