MLB / mlb / live
MIL 12 / COL 4MILMilwaukee Brewers59%
COLColorado Rockies41%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterShane Drohan
Model pickMIL moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
COLHome starterKyle Freeland
MIL59%ML -188
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
COL41%ML +158
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.4 pts
Model has MIL at 58.6%, market implies 62.0% — reasonable convergence. Coors Field (PF 1.47) screams over but model predicts 9.28 vs market 12.0, a 2.72-run gap. Drohan has no season stats (2 GS, null IP/ERA), Freeland's 4.1 IP over 10 GS signals injury/opener usage. Model likely underweighting Coors effect; lean under the inflated market total.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin1.7
Projected total9.3
Market total11.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-188 / +158MIL / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.5O -111 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total