MLB / mlb / live
MIL 9 / COL 7MILMilwaukee Brewers46%
COLColorado Rockies54%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterBrandon Sproat
Model pickCOL moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
COLHome starterRyan Feltner
MIL46%ML -157
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability42%Selected moneyline pick
COL54%ML +130
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanOver
Model-market gap12.0 pts
Model badly misreads Coors. Market total 12.0 vs model 9.03 — park factor 1.47 screams over. Sproat's 21.0 ERA in 3 IP is noise but MIL offense (.972 OPS) vs COL pitching at altitude is real comparison. Market has MIL -150, model has COL favored — structural miss on venue impact.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total12.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-157 / +130MIL / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context12.0O -112 / U -109
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total