MLB / mlb / live
ARI 9 / COL 1ARIArizona Diamondbacks55%
COLColorado Rockies45%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterMerrill Kelly
Model pickARI moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
COLHome starterKyle Freeland
ARI55%ML -125
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
COL45%ML +105
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap2.0 pts
Model total 9.72 vs market 11.5 is a 1.8-run gap at Coors (PF 1.47). Market knows this park inflates; model underweights it. Kelly's missing stats raise uncertainty. Lean ARI and under, trusting market over model on total.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.7
Market total11.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-125 / +105ARI / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-136)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total