MLB / mlb / live
NYM 4 / COL 2NYMNew York Mets59%
COLColorado Rockies41%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterHuascar Brazobán
Model pickNYM moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
COLHome starterTomoyuki Sugano
NYM59%ML -144
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
COL41%ML +123
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.2 pts
Away pitcher TBD kills confidence but NYM's .736 OPS vs COL's .531 is decisive. Model at 58.6% vs market 56.4% shows convergence. Extreme Coors park factor (1.47) drives model's 9.63 total but market at 11.0 is much higher—lean under given pitcher uncertainty and market's elevation premium already baked in.
pitcher data fallbackextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin1.6
Projected total9.5
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-144 / +123NYM / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -118 / U -105
30 books28 ML22 run line20 total