MLB / mlb / live
ATL 11 / COL 6ATLAtlanta Braves59%
COLColorado Rockies41%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterSpencer Strider
Model pickATL moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
COLHome starterKyle Freeland
ATL59%ML -164
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability60%Selected moneyline pick
COL41%ML +140
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanOver
Model-market gap1.2 pts
Strider fallback data (0.00 ERA, 6.0 IP) is obviously incomplete; real signal unclear. ATL's 24-10 record and .789 OPS vs COL's .531 OPS is the cleanest comparison. Coors 1.47 park factor plus fallback pitcher uncertainty means lean over on the 10.5 total. Model under-prices park effect at 9.39.
pitcher data fallbackextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin1.3
Projected total9.4
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-164 / +140ATL / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -108 / U -112
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total