MLB / mlb / live
ATL 8 / COL 6ATLAtlanta Braves57%
COLColorado Rockies43%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterGrant Holmes
Model pickATL moneyline57%Model 20260414_1
COLHome starterJose Quintana
ATL57%ML -186
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
COL43%ML +156
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.3 pts
Market has ATL at 63% implied, model at 57%. Coors' 1.47 PF drives model total to 9.15 vs market 11.0—a 1.85-run gap. Model systematically underweights extreme parks; here it's actually *underestimating* runs. ATL's .789 OPS and 5.5 RPG comparison over COL's .531/.4.8 supports the side, but the total miss reveals structural blindness to Coors inflation.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.1
Market total11.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-186 / +156ATL / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -105 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total