MLB / mlb / live
ATL 8 / COL 6ATLAtlanta Braves57%
COLColorado Rockies43%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterGrant Holmes
Model pickATL moneyline57%Model 20260414_1
COLHome starterJose Quintana
ATL57%ML -186
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability62%Selected moneyline pick
COL43%ML +156
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap5.1 pts
Market has ATL at 63% implied, model at 57%. Coors' 1.47 PF drives model total to 9.15 vs market 11.0—a 1.85-run gap. Model systematically underweights extreme parks; here it's actually *underestimating* runs. ATL's .789 OPS and 5.5 RPG comparison over COL's .531/.4.8 supports the side, but the total miss reveals structural blindness to Coors inflation.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.1
Market total11.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-186 / +156ATL / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -105 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total