MLB / mlb / live
LAD 6 / COL 9LADLos Angeles Dodgers56%
COLColorado Rockies44%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterRoki Sasaki
Model pickLAD moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
COLHome starterMichael Lorenzen
LAD56%ML -290
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability71%Selected moneyline pick
COL44%ML +230
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanOver
Model-market gap15.4 pts
Market has LAD at 73% implied vs model's 56%—market is right here. Coors Field (PF 1.47) is driving the 11.5 total; model's 9.34 is a structural miss on park effects. Sasaki missing all stats is concerning but LAD's .743 OPS vs COL's .531 is decisive. Take LAD and over.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.3
Market total11.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-290 / +230LAD / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+142)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.5O -114 / U -106
30 books28 ML23 run line20 total