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CHW 3 / CLE 6
CHWChicago White Sox44%
CLECleveland Guardians56%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHWAway starterAnthony KayConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline56%Model 20260914_auto
CLEHome starterParker MessickConfirmed
CHW44%ML +134
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
CLE56%ML -160

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.6 pts

Market (62.2%) is higher on Cleveland than the model (55.6%), and the pitching matchup supports the market: Messick at 2.51 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 against Kay's 4.53 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Model's 8.42-run total sits 1.4 above the 7.0 line despite a sub-1.00 park factor and the better starter on the mound, so I lean under.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.6
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Anthony KayCHW starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +110 betmgm / U -125 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Parker MessickCLE starter / home
Projected K6.7Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +100 betmgm / U -107 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.589%over
O 4.579%over
O 5.565%over
O 6.550%over
O 7.536%over
O 8.525%under
O 9.516%under
O 10.59%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+134 / -160CHW / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+142)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O 0 / U -120
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total