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OAK 3 / CLE 5
OAKOakland Athletics29%
CLECleveland Guardians71%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
OAKAway starterMason BarnettConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline71%Model 20260914_auto
CLEHome starterDaniel EspinoConfirmed
OAK29%ML +195
Base model probability71%Moneyline only
CLE71%ML -238

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.3 pts

CLE is the clear side: 78-75 vs 61-92, 5.4 RPG against OAK's 3.0, and Barnett's 7.08 ERA/1.62 WHIP over 40.7 IP is a soft matchup. Model's 70.6% is aggressive versus market's 63.4% given Espino has just one start (12.3 IP). Weak OAK offense plus a neutral park leans under 8.5.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.8
Projected total8.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Mason BarnettOAK starter / away
Projected K3.2Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -120 betmgm / U +106 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 2.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%over
O 2.561%over
O 3.539%over
O 4.522%under
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Daniel EspinoCLE starter / home
Projected K2.7Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.574%under
O 2.549%under
O 3.528%under
O 4.514%under
O 5.56%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+195 / -238OAK / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-111)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total