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CHW 7 / CLE 3
CHWChicago White Sox39%
CLECleveland Guardians61%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHWAway starterSean NewcombConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline61%Model 20260914_auto
CLEHome starterGavin WilliamsConfirmed
CHW39%ML +150
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
CLE61%ML -177

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-timeN/A

No market odds available, so this is a context-only read. Williams' 12.14 K/9 and 1.09 WHIP plus home field support CLE, but Newcomb's 2.77 ERA and 1.14 WHIP make this closer than the model's 61.4%. Team offense lines are inconsistent (CLE 4.9 RPG on .600 OPS vs CHW 3.5 RPG on .729), so I discount both. No total view without a line.

market data missing

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total7.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Sean NewcombCHW starter / away
Projected K2.2Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.564%under
O 2.538%under
O 3.519%under
O 4.58%under
O 5.53%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / home
Projected K9.3Actual 7 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O +128 betonlineag / U -140 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 8.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.599%over
O 3.598%over
O 4.594%over
O 5.588%over
O 6.580%over
O 7.569%under
O 8.557%under
O 9.545%under
O 10.534%under
O 11.524%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+150 / -177CHW / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+134)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total