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DET 6 / CLE 0
DETDetroit Tigers46%
CLECleveland Guardians54%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
DETAway starterFramber ValdezConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline54%Model 20260831_auto
CLEHome starterParker MessickConfirmed
DET46%ML +138
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
CLE54%ML -162

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.7 pts

Model's 8.55-run total sits over two runs above the 6.5 market line, which looks like a structural miss: Messick carries a 2.46 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, Detroit is scoring 3.1 runs per game with a .582 OPS, and Progressive Field grades slightly pitcher-friendly at 0.98. Side agrees with market on CLE, though the market's 58.7% is more assertive than the model's 54.0%. Under is the cleaner position.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.4
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Framber ValdezDET starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -157 draftkings / U +124 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Parker MessickCLE starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 12 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +102 draftkings / U -125 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 6.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.523%over
O 8.514%over
O 9.58%over
O 10.54%over
O 11.52%over

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 12 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+138 / -162DET / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -102 / U -118
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total