MLB / mlb / live
KCR 8 / CLE 3KCRKansas City Royals46%
CLECleveland Guardians54%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterDaniel Lynch IVConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline54%Model 20260824_auto
CLEHome starterFoster GriffinConfirmed
KCR46%ML +140
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
CLE54%ML -165
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.4
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Daniel Lynch IVKCR starter / away
Projected K3.0Actual 3 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +100 betmgm / U -122 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 2.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%over
O 2.556%over
O 3.534%under
O 4.518%under
O 5.58%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Foster GriffinCLE starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +112 fanduel / U -122 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+140 / -165KCR / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -108 / U -112
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total