sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

SDP 5 / CLE 0
SDPSan Diego Padres61%
CLECleveland Guardians39%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterCasey MizeConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline61%Model 20260810_auto
CLEHome starterTanner BibeeConfirmed
SDP61%ML -112
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
CLE39%ML -105

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.7 pts

Market is a pick'em (implied 49.3% home) while the model has SDP at 61.4% — a 12-point gap I can't justify. Mize (3.38 ERA, 8.63 K/9, 1.09 WHIP) is the better arm today, so a slight SDP lean is defensible, but nothing more. Model's 9.54 total sits 1.5 runs above the 8.0 line with two sub-4.00 ERA starters and a neutral park; I'll take the under.

Large model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin1.7
Projected total9.5
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Casey MizeSDP starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +132 fanduel / U -158 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%under
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Tanner BibeeCLE starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +117 betonlineag / U -132 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%under
O 4.554%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-112 / -105SDP / CLE moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total