sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

NYM 13 / CLE 6
NYMNew York Mets52%
CLECleveland Guardians48%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterNolan McLeanConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline52%Model 20260803_auto
CLEHome starterFoster GriffinConfirmed
NYM52%ML +107
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
CLE48%ML -125

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.6 pts

Market is essentially pick'em (home -111) while CLE's offense is the weak link: 3.3 RPG and .600 OPS against NYM's 4.5 RPG and .736 OPS. Griffin (3.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) is fine but McLean's 10.6 K/9 gives the Mets the strikeout comparison. Both starters under 3.50 ERA plus a neutral-to-slightly-suppressive park (0.98) argues under 7.5; the model's 8.83 looks too high.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.8
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Nolan McLeanNYM starter / away
Projected K6.0Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -140 betmgm / U +114 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 5.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.570%over
O 5.554%over
O 6.539%over
O 7.526%over
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Foster GriffinCLE starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +118 fanduel / U -140 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.549%over
O 6.534%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+107 / -125NYM / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -108 / U -112
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total