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ARIArizona Diamondbacks49%
CLECleveland Guardians51%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterMerrill KellyConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline51%Model 20260727_auto
CLEHome starterGavin WilliamsConfirmed
ARI49%ML +155
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability62%Selected moneyline pick
CLE51%ML -185

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap11.4 pts

Model sees coin flip (50.9%), market leans CLE hard at 59.3%. ARI's 6.7 RPG offense is league-best but Williams' 3.71 ERA and 11.34 K/9 in 133 IP is legit. Model's 9.44 total vs market 7.5 is a 2-run gap—systematic miss on elite starter in pitcher park. Kelly's 4.86 ERA supports runs but Progressive Field (0.98 PF) and Williams' strikeout stuff argue under market total.

Large model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.4
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Merrill KellyARI starter / away
Projected K4.1
Best price at 3.53.5O -115 betmgm / U +106 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%
O 2.576%
O 3.558%
O 4.539%
O 5.523%
O 6.513%
O 7.56%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / home
Projected K7.0
Best price at 7.57.5O +124 draftkings / U -150 betmgm4 books at this line
Model over 7.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%
O 2.596%
O 3.590%
O 4.581%
O 5.568%
O 6.554%
O 7.540%
O 8.527%
O 9.518%
O 10.511%
O 11.56%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+155 / -185ARI / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+116)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total