sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

ARI 12 / CLE 8
ARIArizona Diamondbacks54%
CLECleveland Guardians46%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterKohl DrakeConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline54%Model 20260727_auto
CLEHome starterParker MessickConfirmed
ARI54%ML +150
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
CLE46%ML -179

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.3 pts

Model favors ARI 54% but market has CLE at 59%. Messick's 2.59 ERA over 125 IP is legitimate; Drake has only 9 IP (2 starts), too small to trust. Market likely correct pricing CLE's starter advantage. Total model says 9.42, market 8.5—ARI's 6.1 RPG offense vs small-sample Drake supports over lean.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.7
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Kohl DrakeARI starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +102 fanduel / U -122 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.520%over
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Parker MessickCLE starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -145 fanatics / U +125 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+150 / -179ARI / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -108 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total