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ARI 4 / CLE 1
ARIArizona Diamondbacks55%
CLECleveland Guardians45%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterMitch BrattConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
CLEHome starterTanner BibeeConfirmed
ARI55%ML +118
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
CLE45%ML -139

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.4 pts

Model has ARI at 55.2%, market also 55.2% via -129/+119 odds—no comparison on side. Bratt's 6.32 ERA in 15.2 IP is shaky but CLE offense is league-worst at 4.0 RPG. Model total 9.59 vs market 8.5 is a 1.09 gap; SHAP shows home pitcher xwOBA driving total up. Lean over 8.5 given ARI's 5.9 RPG and model's structural read.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.3
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Mitch BrattARI starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +115 betonlineag / U +108 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 3.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.565%under
O 3.544%under
O 4.526%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Tanner BibeeCLE starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +101 draftkings / U -122 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%under
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+118 / -139ARI / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total