MLB / mlb / live
MIN 10 / CLE 6MINMinnesota Twins52%
CLECleveland Guardians48%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterBailey OberConfirmed
Model pickMIN moneyline52%Model 20260720_auto
CLEHome starterSlade CecconiConfirmed
MIN52%ML +120
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
CLE48%ML -143
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.1 pts
Model has MIN at 51.6%, market implies CLE 53.5%. Coin flip territory. Model total 9.09 vs market 8.0 is a 1.09 gap—not structural enough to fade. offense_defense_mismatch fires but neither pitcher profile is elite. Lean MIN, over on total.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Bailey OberMIN starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -114 betonlineag / U +111 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.564%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%under
O 3.564%under
O 4.545%under
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Slade CecconiCLE starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -148 betrivers / U +125 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+120 / -143MIN / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -111 / U -109
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total