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PIT 7 / CLE 1
PITPittsburgh Pirates46%
CLECleveland Guardians54%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterPaul SkenesConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline54%Model 20260713_auto
CLEHome starterJoey CantilloConfirmed
PIT46%ML -104
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
CLE54%ML -115

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.9 pts

Model sees 8.72 total vs market 7.0 — a 1.72-run gap flags structural miss. Skenes (3.57 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 1.02 WHIP) and Cantillo (3.56 ERA, 9.36 K/9) both pitching well. Progressive Field is pitcher-neutral (0.98 PF). Model's coin-flip moneyline (54.5% CLE) conflicts with market lean to PIT (-110). PIT's 6.9 RPG offense vs CLE's 3.6 suggests away comparison. Total should stay under market 7.0.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.7
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Paul SkenesPIT starter / away
Projected K5.9Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -155 betmgm / U +130 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 6.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.554%over
O 6.539%over
O 7.526%over
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Joey CantilloCLE starter / home
Projected K6.8Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +120 betrivers / U -138 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 6.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.590%over
O 4.580%over
O 5.566%over
O 6.552%over
O 7.538%under
O 8.526%under
O 9.516%under
O 10.510%under
O 11.56%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-104 / -115PIT / CLE moneyline
Run line context1.3 (-174)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -109 / U -118
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total