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PIT 7 / CLE 1
PITPittsburgh Pirates38%
CLECleveland Guardians62%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterJared JonesConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline62%Model 20260713_auto
CLEHome starterGavin WilliamsConfirmed
PIT38%ML +110
Base model probability62%Moneyline only
CLE62%ML -130

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.9 pts

Model has CLE at 62% vs market's 53%—a 9-point gap triggering market_disagreement_large. PIT's 7.0 RPG and .710 OPS are significantly better than CLE's 4.0/.600, yet model favors worse offense by nearly a run. Jones' 35 IP is small sample but both pitchers allow hard contact per SHAP. Model total 8.53 vs market 7.5 suggests over has value despite slight pitcher park.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jared JonesPIT starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 betmgm / U -138 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%over
O 7.511%over
O 8.56%over
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / home
Projected K7.0Actual 11 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +120 bovada / U -132 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 7.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.590%over
O 4.581%over
O 5.568%over
O 6.554%over
O 7.540%over
O 8.527%over
O 9.518%over
O 10.511%over
O 11.56%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+110 / -130PIT / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -114
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total