MLB / mlb / live
CHW 3 / CLE 1CHWChicago White Sox44%
CLECleveland Guardians56%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterSean BurkeConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
CLEHome starterParker MessickConfirmed
CHW44%ML +120
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
CLE56%ML -140
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Sean BurkeCHW starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 11 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -102 fanduel / U -115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%over
O 5.542%over
O 6.528%over
O 7.517%over
O 8.59%over
O 9.55%over
O 10.52%over
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.
Parker MessickCLE starter / home
Projected K6.1Actual 3 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +102 fanduel / U -121 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.585%under
O 4.572%under
O 5.556%under
O 6.541%under
O 7.528%under
O 8.518%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+120 / -140CHW / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total