MLB / mlb / live
SEA 3 / CLE 4SEASeattle Mariners52%
CLECleveland Guardians48%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterLogan GilbertConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline52%Model 20260622_auto
CLEHome starterSlade CecconiConfirmed
SEA52%ML -154
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
CLE48%ML +130
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Logan GilbertSEA starter / away
Projected K6.1Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -134 betrivers / U +118 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 6.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%over
O 5.555%over
O 6.540%over
O 7.527%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Slade CecconiCLE starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +108 fanduel / U -130 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-154 / +130SEA / CLE moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total