MLB / mlb / live
SEA 3 / CLE 1SEASeattle Mariners45%
CLECleveland Guardians55%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterLuis CastilloConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline55%Model 20260622_auto
CLEHome starterJoey CantilloConfirmed
SEA45%ML -108
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
CLE55%ML -110
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.5
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Luis CastilloSEA starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.3Actual 4 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.562%over
O 3.541%over
O 4.523%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Joey CantilloCLE starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 betmgm / U -121 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.544%over
O 6.529%over
O 7.518%over
O 8.510%over
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-108 / -110SEA / CLE moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-157)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total