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DET 1 / CLE 3
DETDetroit Tigers59%
CLECleveland Guardians41%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
DETAway starterTarik Skubal
Model pickDET moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterJoey Cantillo
DET59%ML -140
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
CLE41%ML +118

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap2.7 pts

Model predicts 9.43 total vs market 7.5 - a 1.93 run gap flags structural miss. Skubal (2.70 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 9.35 K/9) is elite; Progressive Field runs neutral (0.98 PF). DET offense at 6.4 RPG seems inflated by small road sample. Market at 7.5 knows something model's rolling windows miss. Lean DET on Skubal comparison, but pass total or take under market.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin1.3
Projected total9.4
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Lines
Tarik SkubalDET starter / away
Projected K5.8Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +102 betrivers / U -113 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%under
O 5.551%under
O 6.536%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Joey CantilloCLE starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -150 fanduel / U +122 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 4.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%under
O 5.540%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-140 / +118DET / CLE moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total