MLB / mlb / live
NYY 7 / CLE 5NYYNew York Yankees52%
CLECleveland Guardians48%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterWill Warren
Model pickNYY moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterGavin Williams
NYY52%ML +108
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
CLE48%ML -128
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.7 pts
Model has NYY at 52.2%, market has CLE at 53.5% — essentially a coinflip. CLE offense is anemic (3.5 RPG, .600 OPS) while NYY scores 6.6 RPG. Williams' 5.4 ERA in limited IP is concerning. Model total of 9.18 vs market 8.0 suggests over lean, driven by NYY's offense. Thin comparison on away side.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+108 / -128NYY / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -116
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total