MLB / mlb / live
NYY 8 / CLE 4NYYNew York Yankees42%
CLECleveland Guardians58%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterCarlos Rodón
Model pickCLE moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterParker Messick
NYY42%ML +100
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
CLE58%ML -119
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanOver
Model-market gap6.0 pts
Model likes CLE 58% but market has it 52%, nearly a coin flip. Rodón's 2.88 ERA in only 25 IP (2.5 starts) is thin data; Messick's 2.40 in 75 IP is more trustworthy. NYY offense (5.4 RPG, .692 OPS) substantially better than CLE (3.5 RPG, .600 OPS). Ace matchup flag present but Rodón sample too small to trust; lean NYY on offense comparison, over 8.0 on model's 8.87.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+100 / -119NYY / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.3 (+148)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -117 / U -102
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total