MLB / mlb / live
BOS 9 / CLE 1BOSBoston Red Sox37%
CLECleveland Guardians63%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterSonny Gray
Model pickCLE moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterParker Messick
BOS37%ML +109
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
CLE63%ML -130
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#13
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap8.4 pts
Model has CLE at 62.6% while market is 54.8% - suspicious 8pp gap. Messick has null season stats despite 10 starts (data issue). Model total of 8.82 vs market 6.5 is a 2.3-run miss, triggering total_far_from_market. Without reliable pitcher data, can't evaluate if gap is justified. Pass on both side and total.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.8
Market total6.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+109 / -130BOS / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O +100 / U -120
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total