MLB / mlb / live
WSN 2 / CLE 3WSNWashington Nationals40%
CLECleveland Guardians60%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterPJ Poulin
Model pickCLE moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterGavin Williams
WSN40%ML +154
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability62%Selected moneyline pick
CLE60%ML -184
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanOver
Model-market gap2.0 pts
Market has CLE at 62.9%, model at 60.2%. Both pitchers have tiny samples (5.0 IP each) with poor ERAs (5.4 and 7.2). WSN offensive comparison is real: 5.2 RPG and .820 OPS vs CLE's 3.7/.600. Model's CLE lean contradicts WSN's superior offense. Total at 9.0 vs market 8.0 seems right given weak pitching.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+154 / -184WSN / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+116)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -108 / U -119
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total