MLB / mlb / live
WSN 6 / CLE 3WSNWashington Nationals40%
CLECleveland Guardians60%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterCade Cavalli
Model pickCLE moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterJoey Cantillo
WSN40%ML +111
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
CLE60%ML -132
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanOver
Model-market gap5.7 pts
Model has CLE 60% vs market 56%, but WSN offense is demonstrably superior: 5.9 RPG / .820 OPS vs CLE 4.1 / .600. Both pitchers show identical 4.91 ERA in tiny 3.2 IP samples—completely unreliable. Market total 7.5 looks low given WSN's offense and pitcher uncertainty. Lean WSN and over.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+111 / -132WSN / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -103 / U -118
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total