MLB / mlb / live
LAA 2 / CLE 4LAALos Angeles Angels42%
CLECleveland Guardians58%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLAAAway starterReid Detmers
Model pickCLE moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterParker Messick
LAA42%ML +133
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
CLE58%ML -156
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.6 pts
Model total of 9.0 runs is 2 runs over market line of 7.0—a major structural miss. Messick lacks ERA/WHIP stats despite 10 starts (data gap). LAA offense is league-worst at 2.8 RPG despite .86 OPS anomaly. Market at CLE -152 (59.1% implied) is close to model's 57.5%, but thin confidence given pitcher uncertainty and total divergence. Lean CLE, strong under.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+133 / -156LAA / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+144)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML24 run line23 total