MLB / mlb / live
LAA 2 / CLE 4LAALos Angeles Angels42%
CLECleveland Guardians58%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLAAAway starterReid Detmers
Model pickCLE moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterParker Messick
LAA42%ML +133
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability59%Selected moneyline pick
CLE58%ML -156
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.1 pts
Model total of 9.0 runs is 2 runs over market line of 7.0—a major structural miss. Messick lacks ERA/WHIP stats despite 10 starts (data gap). LAA offense is league-worst at 2.8 RPG despite .86 OPS anomaly. Market at CLE -152 (59.1% implied) is close to model's 57.5%, but thin confidence given pitcher uncertainty and total divergence. Lean CLE, strong under.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+133 / -156LAA / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+144)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML24 run line23 total