MLB / mlb / live
CIN 7 / CLE 6CINCincinnati Reds40%
CLECleveland Guardians60%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterAndrew Abbott
Model pickCLE moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterTanner Bibee
CIN40%ML +118
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
CLE60%ML -139
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#12
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.9 pts
Abbott's 0.0 ERA across 60 IP (10 starts at 6 IP each) is transparently impossible—likely a data error. Without reliable away pitcher stats, moneyline confidence collapses. Model predicts 8.96 total vs market 8.0; CIN's superior offense (4.9 RPG, .629 OPS) supports the over lean despite Progressive's slight pitcher tilt.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+118 / -139CIN / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total