MLB / mlb / live
CIN 7 / CLE 6CINCincinnati Reds40%
CLECleveland Guardians60%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterAndrew Abbott
Model pickCLE moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterTanner Bibee
CIN40%ML +118
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
CLE60%ML -139
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#12
Total leanOver
Model-market gap4.3 pts
Abbott's 0.0 ERA across 60 IP (10 starts at 6 IP each) is transparently impossible—likely a data error. Without reliable away pitcher stats, moneyline confidence collapses. Model predicts 8.96 total vs market 8.0; CIN's superior offense (4.9 RPG, .629 OPS) supports the over lean despite Progressive's slight pitcher tilt.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+118 / -139CIN / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total