MLB / mlb / live
MIN 5 / CLE 4MINMinnesota Twins37%
CLECleveland Guardians63%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterAndrew Morris
Model pickCLE moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterGavin Williams
MIN37%ML +135
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
CLE63%ML -160
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.9 pts
Away pitcher Andrew Morris has zero recorded stats (0 starts, null ERA/WHIP/K9). This is a complete data void, not even a fallback substitution. Williams has logged only 5.0 IP across 10 starts (0.5 IP/start avg), suggesting injury or extreme volatility. Model total of 8.74 vs market 7.5 is a 1.24-run gap on unreliable pitcher data. No comparison here.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.7
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+135 / -160MIN / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
31 books29 ML23 run line21 total