MLB / mlb / live
MIN 5 / CLE 4MINMinnesota Twins37%
CLECleveland Guardians63%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterAndrew Morris
Model pickCLE moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterGavin Williams
MIN37%ML +135
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability59%Selected moneyline pick
CLE63%ML -160
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap3.8 pts
Away pitcher Andrew Morris has zero recorded stats (0 starts, null ERA/WHIP/K9). This is a complete data void, not even a fallback substitution. Williams has logged only 5.0 IP across 10 starts (0.5 IP/start avg), suggesting injury or extreme volatility. Model total of 8.74 vs market 7.5 is a 1.24-run gap on unreliable pitcher data. No comparison here.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.7
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+135 / -160MIN / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
31 books29 ML23 run line21 total