MLB / mlb / live
TBR 1 / CLE 3TBRTampa Bay Rays42%
CLECleveland Guardians58%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterDrew Rasmussen
Model pickCLE moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterGavin Williams
TBR42%ML +100
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
CLE58%ML -120
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap5.4 pts
Model has CLE at 57.5% vs market 51.7%, predicts 8.82 runs vs market 6.5. Williams' 5.4 ERA in 5 IP is tiny sample; Rasmussen's 1.8 ERA more credible. TBR offense (.802 OPS) >> CLE (.600 OPS). Model overweights CLE's short-window statcast. Lean TBR and under.
total far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.8
Market total6.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+100 / -120TBR / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+172)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -114 / U -105
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total