MLB / mlb / live
TBR 3 / CLE 2TBRTampa Bay Rays57%
CLECleveland Guardians43%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterSteven Matz
Model pickTBR moneyline57%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterParker Messick
TBR57%ML +118
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability44%Selected moneyline pick
CLE43%ML -140
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanOver
Model-market gap13.4 pts
Model favors TBR at 57.4% vs market's 44% (inverted from -135), a notable gap. Messick has 10 starts but no stats recorded—likely fallback or incomplete data. Matz's 7.20 ERA and 3.6 K/9 screams regression candidate, yet TBR's .802 OPS and 4.6 RPG offense is substantially better than CLE's .600 OPS. Model leans TBR by ~1 run; market disagrees. I lean TBR but cautiously given Messick's data hole.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+118 / -140TBR / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+151)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -116 / U -105
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total