MLB / mlb / live
HOU 9 / CLE 2HOUHouston Astros55%
CLECleveland Guardians45%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterSpencer Arrighetti
Model pickHOU moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterSlade Cecconi
HOU55%ML -105
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability49%Selected moneyline pick
CLE45%ML -115
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap6.3 pts
Away pitcher data is fallback quality and home pitcher Cecconi has 12.46 ERA in just 4.1 IP this season. Model predicts 9.06 runs vs market 7.5, a 1.56 run gap flagged as structural miss. Market has this as coin flip; with unreliable pitcher data on both sides, no comparison exists.
pitcher data fallbacktotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-105 / -115HOU / CLE moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-157)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total