MLB / mlb / live
BAL 2 / CLE 4BALBaltimore Orioles46%
CLECleveland Guardians54%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterDean Kremer
Model pickCLE moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterGavin Williams
BAL46%ML +116
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
CLE54%ML -138
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap2.1 pts
Baltimore's Kremer has no resolved stats (fallback), which creates structural uncertainty the model cannot properly price. Williams' 5.4 ERA in only 5.0 IP is too thin to trust. Market at CLE -133 implies 57% vs model's 54%, but without knowing Kremer's form this becomes a coin flip. Pass both sides.
pitcher data fallback
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+116 / -138BAL / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total