MLB / mlb / live
BAL 4 / CLE 8BALBaltimore Orioles59%
CLECleveland Guardians41%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterTrevor Rogers
Model pickBAL moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterJoey Cantillo
BAL59%ML +100
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
CLE41%ML -118
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap10.6 pts
Model has BAL 58.6% vs market's 48.3% (CLE -112), a major disagreement. Rogers' 0.00 ERA in 7.0 IP is tiny sample noise. Cantillo's 3.2 IP sample equally worthless. Model predicts 9.0 runs vs market 7.0—likely overweighting small-sample offensive stats. Fade the model's total confidence; lean CLE on market price.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.0
Market total6.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+100 / -118BAL / CLE moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-175)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -118 / U -104
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total