MLB / mlb / live
CHC 9 / CIN 1CHCChicago Cubs57%
CINCincinnati Reds43%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterDavid PetersonConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline57%Model 20260914_auto
CINHome starterRhett LowderConfirmed
CHC57%ML -163
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
CIN43%ML +138
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total10.0
Market total9.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
David PetersonCHC starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -138 draftkings / U +110 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.528%over
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Rhett LowderCIN starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -128 fanduel / U +107 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-163 / +138CHC / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-118)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total