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CHC 4 / CIN 6
CHCChicago Cubs44%
CINCincinnati Reds56%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHCAway starterClay HolmesConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline56%Model 20260914_auto
CINHome starterChase BurnsConfirmed
CHC44%ML -150
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
CIN56%ML +125

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.9 pts

Model has CIN at 55.5% vs market's 45.7% implied — a ~10-point gap with no clear justification, and it's backing the team with the worse record (71-82) and far worse offense (2.8 RPG, .629 OPS vs 5.2 and .694). Burns and Holmes both sit under 2.90 ERA with 1.15 WHIPs, so the model's 9.00-run total looks high for this matchup at a neutral park.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatchace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Clay HolmesCHC starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -104 fanduel / U -114 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Chase BurnsCIN starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -127 draftkings / U +110 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 3.578%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%under
O 5.547%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-150 / +125CHC / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -112 / U -108
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total