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LAD 2 / CIN 6
LADLos Angeles Dodgers58%
CINCincinnati Reds42%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LADAway starterBlake SnellConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline58%Model 20260914_auto
CINHome starterAndrew AbbottConfirmed
LAD58%ML -226
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
CIN42%ML +186

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.9 pts

LAD is the clear side: 92-59 with 5.7 RPG and .743 OPS against a Cincinnati offense at 3.7 RPG and .629 OPS. Snell (1.91 ERA, 12.19 K/9) faces the weaker lineup while Abbott's 1.46 WHIP is exposed against the better one. Model's 9.60 total sits 1.6 above the market 8.0 and looks like a structural miss given Snell vs a bottom-tier offense in a neutral park; I take the under.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin1.7
Projected total9.6
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Blake SnellLAD starter / away
Projected K8.0Actual 1 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -125 betmgm / U +120 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 7.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%under
O 2.598%under
O 3.595%under
O 4.588%under
O 5.579%under
O 6.567%under
O 7.553%under
O 8.540%under
O 9.529%under
O 10.519%under
O 11.512%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Andrew AbbottCIN starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +110 bovada / U -134 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.532%over
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-226 / +186LAD / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -104 / U -118
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total